Poland is doubling the size of its military. France is training for a large-scale war. The United States and China both face a ticking clock counting down to a determination of Taiwan's fate. After almost 80 years of no major conflicts, the world is once more on the brink of a major war. But who will be the most powerful military in 2022, and can the US truly retain the top spot? Despite the Covid Pandemic,
10. PAKISTAN
Pakistan has managed to overtake Turkey for the number 10 spot in the world's most powerful militaries. For another year Pakistan's defense budget has increased by double digits, jumping by 12 percent in 2021 alone. Currently, Pakistan fields a military of 654,000 active duty personnel and 550,000 reserves, with an additional 500,000 paramilitary forces in the form of special police which can be called up to frontline duty in case of war. But why the increase in spending? Despite tensions with India remaining relatively stable, Pakistan is perhaps preparing to exploit a distracted India soon. With tensions rising between India and China, should the border skirmishes which have resulted in the loss of life on both sides turn into a full-blown war, it would be the opportunity Pakistan needs to secure Kashmir. To this end, Pakistan is modernizing its nuclear armament and is investing heavily into special operations forces and new main battle tanks purchased from China. The strengthening of Pakistan's military may also be a way of courting Chinese favor, and China certainly has every interest in seeing a strong Pakistan which will serve as a major thorn in the side of its rival India. In case of war, China could almost certainly count on Pakistan taking advantage of the situation to attack India's western territories, forcing India into a two-front war. But can Pakistan's predicted number ten spot truly hold? That remains to be seen because few nations have been hit as hard by the Covid-19 pandemic as Pakistan has. 25 million families currently are relying on government aid as they are unable to work due to the pandemic, and the increasing defense budget is angering many both domestically and abroad- seeing as the nation received a 6 billion dollar loan from the IMF in 2021. Critics believe Pakistan's money is better spent on its people, not on buying new weapons, and should domestic outrage build, Pakistan could easily get knocked off that number 10 spot.
09. BRAZIL
On the other side of the planet, Brazil continues to hold on to its number 9 spot despite a recent surge in domestic trouble. Currently, Brazil has a military of 334,500 active duty members with an impressive 1.3 million reserve force. Given its ongoing missions of enforcing security amongst the amazon states and tackling an explosion in organized crime, it also has a force of 400,000 paramilitary personnel- primarily police forces. Recently the nation has focused on modernizing its military rather than expanding it, as the nation was forced to halt the expansion of its defense budget thanks to the impact of Covid-19. Purchasing equipment from Europe and the United States though allows Brazil to easily overshadow any other South American country as the dominant military in the region. Brazil was also the only South American country to send troops to fight alongside the allies in World War II. The nation continues to honor that legacy by conducting joint training with US forces, and its capable navy can deter any global foe from attempting operations along the South American coast- making Brazil a valued US partner. With the help of the United States, Brazil has officially resuscitated its capability of conducting airborne operations again, allowing it to project force across the incredibly difficult South American terrain and further bolstering its growing capabilities. While the nation doesn't look set to increase in rank in 2022, it certainly isn't going to be dropping from its number 9 spot anytime soon.
08. THE UNITED KINGDOM
The first European power to make our list is the United Kingdom. Once a global superpower, the UK is still a force to be reckoned with- even if its capabilities have seriously atrophied in the last three decades. After the end of the Cold War, British military capabilities seriously diminished, a trend that has only recently begun to be reversed. Thanks to a resurgent Russia and an interest in keeping the Indo-Pacific free, the UK pushed through almost 22 billion in additional defense spending over the next four years starting in 2020. This will hopefully end the infamous “era of retreat” which has seen British influence and military power steadily shrink decade by decade. An alarming report in 2019 questioned the British military's ability to fight and win a conflict against a modern foe and accused the nation of 'hiding' behind a nuclear shield due to its incapability to win conventional conflicts. While British air forces remain strong with its famous Special Air Service wing being one of the top special forces units in the world, the Royal Navy has suffered dramatically- though perhaps not as badly as the British army which has earned the nickname of the “borrowers” for its lack of equipment and needs to trade for equipment with other nation's forces when deployed together. Despite these shrinking capabilities, the UK’s nuclear arsenal has remained in good shape given its investment in ballistic submarines. However, without a nuclear capability, the United Kingdom would easily be overshadowed by Brazil for the number 8 spot on this list, and there are many questions whether the UK is truly ready to fight alongside its ally the United States against Russia or China in a future conflict.
07. FRANCE
The next spot on our list is occupied by another European nation that is perhaps better prepared for the next major conflict than many other powers. This nation is France, which retains its number 7 spot on our list and boasts the second-most powerful military in Europe after Russia. But it's exactly Russia who is driving major investment in the French military which will see its capabilities continue to grow in 2022 and beyond. France already has a very capable military, armed with modern weapon systems and excellent training. Its navy is the most capable of European Nato allies, with 1 aircraft carrier, 11 destroyers, 10 submarines, and 11 frigates. 3 helicopter carriers have also given France the capability to launch amphibious operations in response to a possible future conflict with Russia, or while aiding its American allies in a South Pacific conflict against China. In the 2010s France identified a serious lack of capabilities in conducting independent operations far from its shores without the help of the United States. While this has been a problem plaguing all European NATO members, France has been the only one to systematically tackle and fix the issue, proving it is capable of force projection far from home with its involvement in various anti-terrorism operations in Africa. An aggressive investment into its defense budget sees the nation committed to growing that budget by over 2 billion a year since 2019, and the nation is investing heavily in next-generation technology that will help ensure it remains on the cutting edge of military innovation. Heavy investments into the joint Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System and the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System will bring new fighters and main battle tanks to the already impressive French military. France will without a doubt retain its number 7 spot, but only the ever-present threat of war will keep both France
06. SOUTH KOREA
South Korea and the country in the number 6 spot at the forefront of military innovation. North Korea long ago vowed to reunite the Korean peninsula- by force if necessary. If modern North Korea wants to go through with this plan, they face the sixth most powerful military in the world, armed with modern, and very capable equipment, and an ever-growing defense capability. For most of its life, South Korea has relied heavily on its ally, the United States, to ensure it remained free and independent of both North Korea and China. However, the modern South Korean military is more than capable of fighting, and winning, a war against North Korea, and is powerful enough to make China have second thoughts about any potential ambitions to reinstate historical control over the region. The nation maintains 600,000 active-duty personnel, with 3.1 million trained reservists ready to respond in case of hostilities. The nation places a premium on military readiness, and all men between the ages of 18-28 must serve between 21 and 24 months in the various branches of the military. This leaves South Korea with a massive pool of experienced civilians of military age to call upon in case of war. The South Korean military is expanding its capabilities with new technologies, including the acquisition of unmanned battlefield drones equipped for suicide missions, traditional surveillance, or ground support roles. In a joint partnership with the UK, South Korea also hopes to launch its very first light aircraft carrier in the coming years, and the nation is building an arsenal of ballistic missiles specifically designed to destroy North Korean artillery emplacements- but which could just as easily be used to fend off Chinese aggression in the South Pacific region.
05. JAPAN
With ever-growing capabilities, the gap between South Korea and the number 5 nation is tiny- but the world's fifth most powerful military will not be easily overtaken. Modern Japan stands on the verge of a Constitutional crisis. After its bitter defeat in World War II, the Japanese Constitution forbade the nation from using its military for anything other than direct self-defense. However, the modern security environment for Japan is an extremely challenging one, and decades of pacifism are being questioned in Japan's highest halls of power. Controversially, in 2015 Japan approved the use of expeditionary forces in conflicts it deemed were vital to national security. This was almost solely driven by a growing threat from China, which Japan views as a critical threat to its national interest and the world order. To this end, the Japanese military has seen heavy investment in expeditionary capabilities, allowing the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to better assist their American allies in case of war. Major investments in amphibious capabilities have been a shot in the arm to the Japanese military, as well as Japan's acquisition of the F-35. Within ten years Japan hopes to have a force of nearly 200 F-35s. Another major investment for the Japanese military is in ballistic missile defense, driven both by the threat of North Korean nuclear missiles and China's People's Liberation Rocket Forces. With Japanese air and naval bases critical to any operations against China in case of war for both Japan and the US, they are high priority targets for hundreds of Chinese ballistic missiles. Japan only too well understands that as war with China looms, it will be on the front line of the largest missile assault in history. Today Japan is looking to double its investment in its military, to 2% of GDP, a move that will be controversial to many Japanese but of vital importance to its national security. This investment will ensure that Japan remains in the top 5 most powerful militaries on Earth, but is unlikely to move it any further up the charts given the four heavyweights in those spots.
04. INDIA
India marks our entry into true global heavyweights, militaries so powerful it would take an alliance of nations to challenge them. With 1.4 million active personnel and 1.2 million reserve personnel, the Indian military is amongst the most capable in Asia and challenged only by China in the region. Indian military power ranges from a formidable Air Force to a ground Army and a strong Navy. The nation is part of the aircraft carrier club with 1 modern carrier supported by a fleet of 10 destroyers, 13 frigates, and 17 submarines. The Indian navy is of particular importance to the nation, seeing as it sits at the very crossroads of one of the most important ocean trade routes in the world, and the jugular of Chinese foreign trade. While a robust and capable force, India suffers from a lack of modernity amongst its military equipment. It has a very small domestic arms industry, forcing it to rely on arms imports- and no nation ever exports its very best arms. Because of this, while very capable, Indian tanks, aircraft, and even ships are routinely outmatched pound for pound by its current biggest threat- China. However, things are set to change with the Indian military, as Prime Minister Modi has made the historic decision of strengthening ties with the United States. Historically India has opted to remain largely ambiguous towards major world powers and famously purchased both Soviet and American weapons. This came with its problems, however, as neither nation was willing to partner with India in the purchasing or development of truly cutting-edge systems. After trashing a deal to co-develop Russia's 5th gen fighter, and with rising hostilities with China, India has recently met with the US, Australia, and the UK in a bid to strengthen relations. In the coming decades, if this partnership grows to an alliance, the Indian military will directly benefit, becoming a power that might not only rival China but even overtake it.
03. CHINA
In our top 3 lies India’s arch-nemesis. During the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995, the United States sailed a carrier battle group through the Taiwan Strait in a humiliating show of force that ended the crisis. When asked what his worst nightmare was, a Chinese general at the time responded with, “The United States Navy off the Chinese coast.” After a meteoric rise in Chinese military power, however, the modern US Navy has been forced to admit it can no longer safely operate within sight of the Chinese coastline. Twenty years ago China would have struggled to earn a spot on this top ten list of the world's most powerful militaries. Today, we aren't even sure if we can predict China won't topple Russia for the number two spot in 2022. The Chinese military is the largest in the world, with 2.2 million active-duty personnel and 510,000 reservists. Its navy recently also became the largest in the world, with 777 total vessels. While most of these are lightly armed coastal patrol vessels, China does operate the largest fleet of submarines and frigates in the world, with 79 submarines and 46 frigates. Its force of 50 destroyers ranks amongst the top 3, and alarmingly, new Chinese destroyers are largely thought of as more capable technologically speaking than current American destroyers- even if they are less well-armed. The nation also has an impressive air fleet of 3,260 aircraft, with 1200 fighters, 371 attack aircraft, and 327 attack helicopters. However, the People's Liberation Air Force faces a modernization problem, and while it operates 50 J-20 stealth fighters, the J-20 is largely believed to be inferior to the American F-22, F-35, and the Russian Su-57. The nation however is seeking to offset its imbalance in air power with a strong emphasis on stand-off attack weapons and a large maritime force. China completely outstrips the United States in the development of hypersonic missiles, a truly revolutionary weapon that threatens the survivability of the US Navy in the South Pacific. Its expanding fleet of amphibious assault ships are a critical threat to Taiwan and other South Pacific nations, and its militarization of islands in the South China Sea has led to a string of 'unsinkable aircraft carriers' that the US Navy recently admitted it could not challenge without pulling resources away from other parts of a war front with the country. A robust defense industry sees China dominate the number three spot, but the economic and demographic problems faced by the 2nd most powerful military power will almost inevitably lead to China overtaking it as the number 2 military in the world.
02. RUSSIA
The spot for the second most powerful military in the world is claimed by Russia, a hard-earned title after facing the apocalyptic decrease in power caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The modern Russian military fields an active force of 1 million personnel, with 2 million reservists. However, much of Russia's military is made up of conscripts, despite a push to expand the number of volunteers through economic incentives. In the air, Russia dwarfs China with 4,144 total aircraft, 789 of which are fighters. While this is less than China, Russian fighters are on the whole more capable than their Chinese counterparts, given that most Chinese fighters are based on Soviet or Russian designs. Its ground-attack fleet is the second largest in the world, with 742 ground attack aircraft and 538 attack helicopters. Russian claims a force of 13,000 tanks, but these are overwhelmingly greatly antiquated Soviet-era tanks that have been mothballed and would require weeks of preparation to be made battle-ready. Even then, they wouldn't stand a chance against a modern tank- though Russians have always proven that numbers provide a form of quality. Realistically, only about 2,000 Russian tanks are either combat-ready or modern. The Russian Navy is the second largest in the world, with 603 total ships. However, the Russian Navy best exemplifies the real problem with the Russian military- it has a great deal of equipment, but very little of it is truly modern. A host of economic issues- including sanctions over its actions in Crimea- and an exodus of its population seeking better opportunities elsewhere is placing its future in danger. Today Russia has a very troubling population growth rate of -.2%. The Russian military is a paradox of very capable weapon systems based on antiquated platforms. Its navy is largely made of Soviet-era holdovers, and yet its ships- while individually outclassed by other nations- are still equipped with some of the best missile systems in the world. This is a problem that plagues Russia, as the nation is unable to raise the funds to modernize its military, leaving it in serious jeopardy of losing a conventional war. After it was slapped with sanctions in 2014, the nation was unable to procure much of the dual-use technology it relied on from the west for its reconnaissance satellite fleet, and its lack of drones and other recon assets, as well as very few smart weapons, make it difficult for the Russian military to accurately target its advanced weapon systems. While today Russia remains a powerhouse, most of its strength comes from its massive nuclear arsenal. As its economy continues to shrink, Russia is very rapidly approaching sharing the same fate as the United Kingdom, becoming a power forced to hide behind its nuclear shield and unable to project power far from its shores. In 2022 Russia will likely retain the number two spot but is unlikely to hold on to it much longer. Due to its trajectory, it's hard to see a future where the country will be able to overtake the number one military power in the world.
01. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (USA)
The United States continues to dominate as the world's sole superpower and the most capable military on the planet. However, the gap between the United States and Russia and China has been greatly eroded in recent years, and many now question if the US can truly fight and win a war against either rival. Its active duty force consists of 1.4 million personnel, with a reservist force of 846,000. Unlike most other nations, however, the United States reserve force not only receives regular training but is equipped with modern equipment and routinely saw combat operations during the US's most recent wars. This makes the US reserve force alone as fully capable as many of the militaries on this list. In the air, the United States is unchallenged, with the world's largest air fleet of 13,233 aircraft- including the world's largest fighter fleet of 1,956 aircraft. Airpower is a very big deal for the US military, and it also retains an attack air fleet of 761 aircraft- notably including the world's only fleet of stealth bombers. On the ground, the US has only the world's third-largest fleet of main battle tanks, but each one is modern and extremely capable. While the Abrams may be an aging design, routine upgrade packages provide improved electronics, sensors and optics, and even armor upgrades. However, this venerable tank is facing new problems- namely that the latest upgrade packages push its weight to almost 100 tons, entirely too heavy for the tank to be transported by conventional methods. Having one of the world's best tanks means nothing if you can't ship it to the fight. The US navy is only the fourth-largest, but it is by far the most capable. Its 490 ship navy consists of 11 aircraft carriers and 10 assault carriers, the largest amphibious assault fleet in the world. 92 destroyers and 68 submarines make up the backbone of the US Navy, and both its destroyer and submarine fleets are receiving upgrades in the form of the DDG (X) program, which aims to produce a new class of destroyer, and the Virginia class which is even now coming into service with the US's submarine fleet. The US is a world-class power, but it suffers from two critical weaknesses that endanger its ability to fight and win future conflicts. First, the US has been completely outmatched in the development of conventional breakthrough technologies such as hypersonic missiles. While the United States was focused on developing weapons and systems to defeat asymmetrical foes such as terrorists and insurgents, China and Russia both developed a robust hypersonics program. Today the US has no usable hypersonic weapons, while both China and Russia have added small numbers to their arsenals. These weapons are a critical threat to the US, as they are much more difficult to defeat with missile defense systems and place the US Navy at great risk. The second problem for the United States is a history of overeager investment in next-generation technologies with often little to no payout. In the early 2000s, the US invested tens of millions into its Future Warrior concept, promising to bring breakthrough technologies to the individual warfighter. Few of those technologies ever actually panned out. Next, the US invested 10 billion into the Zumwalt class destroyer, an advanced destroyer with great capabilities that ended up being so expensive the entire program was canceled- purchasing just 2,000 of the Long Range Land Attack Projectile rounds fired by its dual 155 mm cannons would have cost the US 2 billion. The Littoral Combat Ship promised to give the US navy a cheap, mission-flexible craft capable of undertaking a variety of tasks in the littoral waters of hostile coasts. Ultimately every LCS has been ordered for early retirement due to a long string of failures with various ship systems, and the fact that the ship is rated as non-combat survivable due to its poor design and lack of armament. Since 2015 the US has started fielding the F-35, which is rated to cost the American taxpayer almost 2 trillion dollars across its lifecycle, making it the most expensive weapons program in history. Despite many claims of its capabilities though, a growing chorus of voices have been warning of serious concerns over the plane's ability to fight and win against potential Chinese or Russian adversaries. The US Air Force and Navy both have lost so much faith in the F-35 that they have decided to purchase more F-15s and F-18s respectively, attempting to build up a 4.5 generation fleet of aircraft should the F-35 prove a dud in combat. If the United States is to remain number one, it needs to address critical shortcomings in R&D, as well as stop wasting procurement and development funds on technological boondoggles. Despite these serious shortcomings, the United States remains the world's premier military force, and that's unlikely to change at any time in the 21st century.
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